Are you sure they would have lost anyway?

By now you've heard of Gabe Okoye and Brittany Mayti, the contestants on Million Dollar Money Drop who correctly answered a question about Post-It notes and still lost $800,000 anyway. Now the host Kevin Pollak is saying that the couple would have lost on the next question anyway. It seems that Pollak has doctorate degrees in causal quantum mechanics, game theory and behavioral neurochemistry.

Seriously, though, as sensible as Pollak's premise sounds, it is quite flawed. For one thing, even if Pollak has himself experienced losing $800,000 in the blink of an eye (such as at the casino), he does not exactly understand the demoralizing effect such a loss can have on an ordinary person.

If the contestants had had $800,000 to bet on the next question instead of just $80,000, perhaps they might have had a more intelligent discussion as to whether Brian Williams or Jon Stewart was "the most trusted broadcaster of 2009." Maybe they knew the right answer was Jon Stewart in the back of their minds, but with the horrendous loss of 800 grand fresh in their minds, they would surely have second-guessed themselves, thinking something like "If we were wrong about Post-Its, we might also be wrong about Jon Stewart."

And let's not forget that on Million Dollar Money Drop contestants get a choice of two categories on each question. If Okoye and Mayti had gone on to the next question with the 800 thou, would they have made the same choice for the next category?

In the end, however, despite my disagreeing with Pollak's premise, I must admit that I agree with his conclusion. The fact is that Million Dollar Money Drop is designed to make sure contestants go home with nothing. Even Who Wants To Be a Millionaire? allowed contestants to bow out of the game at certain points and go home with a decent amount of money. On Drop, whatever few thousands you might have left on the final question (if you even get that far) must be placed on only one answer, you can't hedge, it's all-or-nothing. Who knows, you might actually have a better chance of winning a million on your state lottery.